Pre-Game Breakdown: Week 19 vs. Ottawa

The Tiger-Cats (10-6) play host to the Ottawa Redblacks (10-6) as both teams vie for first place in the East Division.
The Ticats enter the week on a losing note, coming off of a 40-13 loss to the BC Lions. The Black and Gold kicked off the game strong, scoring a long passing touchdown on their first possession of the game. Following the Tasker touchdown, the team gave up 27 consecutive points before scoring a late third-quarter TD, their final points of the game. Jeff Mathews had an up-and-down game, completing 22-of-32 passes for 270 yards and two touchdowns, but also throwing two interceptions. The Ticats defence struggled to contain running back Andrew Harris, who amassed 119 yards on the ground to go along with two rushing scores.
Ottawa enter’s Sunday’s game coming off of a second straight one-score win over the Winnipeg Blue Bombers. The Redblacks outscored the Bombers 10-0 in the final quarter of Saturday’s game, staving off a potential game-tying drive by Matt Nichols and the Winnipeg offence. Henry Burris and the Ottawa offence were firing on all cylinders in the contest, racking up 525 total yards in the contest. The Redblacks were stifling against the run, holding the Bombers to just 2.1 yards per carry in the game while containing the Bombers offence to just 283 yards on the day.
With both teams holding 10-6 records coming into Week 19, there are a number of possible playoff scenarios.

• If Hamilton wins both games of the home-and-home, they would clinch an East Division Final berth at home, finishing first in the division. In this scenario, if the Argos win their final game of the season the Redblacks would finish third in the East Division and travel to Toronto for the East Semi-Final; if the Argos lose next week against Winnipeg the Redblacks would host the East Division Semi-Final in Ottawa.
• If the Ticats and Redblacks split the remaining two games, the tiebreaker would go to the team with the higher aggregate score in the two games. The winner of the tiebreaker would host the East Final, the loser would host the East Semi-Final against the Argos.
• If Ottawa wins both games of the home-and-home, the Ticats would play host to the Argos in the East Semi-Final, while the Redblacks would host the East Final in Ottawa.

Tonight’s home game kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET at Tim Hortons Field, gates open at 11:00 a.m ET. To catch all the action tune into TSN on TV or listen to the play-by-play on TSN 1150 with Andy McNamara and Coach Sal, and be sure to sign into the Ticats TV Gameday Live stream, which can be accessed on Ticats.ca. To further enhance your game-watching experience sign up for Ticats All Access to play the Gameday Predictor Challenge!

NOTABLE NOTES

Takeaways from this week’s Game Notes, provided by the CFL stats crew.

• This home-and-home between Hamilton and Ottawa is the first since September 13-19.
• Jeff Mathews is evidently easing into his role as starting quarterback, averaging 298.7 passing yards and 2 touchdowns per game over his last three contests.
• Hamilton has lost two straight games just once all season. They have followed up four of their five previous losses with victories of 26, 10, 30 and 15 points.
• Terrell Sinkfield (33) and Luke Tasker (49) are each less than 50 yards away from recording 1,000 receiving yards this season, despite the fact that both have missed at least three games.

TIGER-CATS HISTORY AGAINST OTTAWA

KEYS TO THE GAME:

Win the turnover game: The Ticats have led the league in turnover ratio by a comfortable margin all season. The Black and Gold’s total of +17 is higher than any other team by at least 11 and their overall success has relied heavily upon this ability to win the turnover battle. In their 10 wins in the 2015 season they have a turnover ratio of +28, in their six losses they are -11. This week the Ticats go head-to-head with the team that is tied with them for the league-lead in interceptions (24), if they hope to win on Sunday they are going to have to re-take the lead in this category.
Come out of the gates fast: Along with a winning turnover ratio, an early lead has been a consistent factor in the Ticats 2015 wins. In 16 games the team has racked up a 154-59 point advantage in the first quarter and has jumped out to 12 first-quarter leads this season. Nine of the Ticats 10 wins have come in games in which they’ve led after the first 15:00 minutes, while they are 0-3 in games where they trail after the first quarter. The Redblacks have enjoyed success when leading after the first quarter as well, posting a 6-0 record in games when they take a lead out of the first quarter. In total, the Ticats and Redblacks are 15-3 when leading after the first quarter and 3-8 when trailing after the first frame. Whoever is able to establish an early lead on Sunday has a good chance of coming home with the win.

TICATS PLAYERS TO WATCH:

OFFENSIVE PLAYERS TO WATCH

• CJ Gable, RB – Gable made his return to the Ticats lineup last week, recording a total of 70 yards on 12 touches in the game. In his last game against the Redblacks, Gable exploded for 167 yards and a touchdown on just 9 touches. The Redblacks defence has been the top unit against the run this season, holding opposing rushers to just 67 yards per game. Despite this strength against the run, the Ticats must find a way to bring balance to their offence and get Gable involved on the ground or through the air.

• Bakari Grant, WR – Grant makes his second return from injury this season, returning after a three-game hiatus from the lineup. The veteran receiver enters the game averaging 56 yards per game this season, with a total of 447 yards and four touchdowns in just eight games. We’ve only seen Grant and rookie quarterback Jeff Mathews together in two games, but the two have both spoken highly of what each other brings to the field and it will be interesting to see how the rookie and vet mesh on Sunday.

DEFENSIVE PLAYERS TO WATCH

• Bryan Hall, DL – The tandem of Bryan Hall and Ted Laurent consistently generates pressure on the quarterback up the gut, and that pressure has never been more important than it will be against Redblacks quarterback Henry Burris. Pressure up the middle is critical because it collapses the pocket and forces the quarterback to move; no QB can be comfortable with pressure in his face. Hall’s performance on the pass rush, as well as his ability to stuff the rushing attack at the line of scrimmage will be critical to the Ticats defensive success on Sunday.
• Taylor Reed, LB – One of the most underrated defensive players in the league, Reed has put together a standout season for the Ticats. Reed recorded another six tackles in last week’s loss to the Lions, improving his season total to 70, just three behind the team’s leader Simoni Lawrence (73). Look for the Ticats linebacking crew, and specifically Reed, to have a big impact on the outcome of Sunday’s game.

REDBLACKS PLAYERS TO WATCH:

OFFENSIVE PLAYERS TO WATCH

• William Powell, RB – Much has been said about the Redblacks passing attack, but running back Will Powell has filled in admirably for the injured Jeremiah Johnson and has maintained a balanced attack for Ottawa. Powell has averaged 78 yards per game over the last three contests, chipping in two touchdowns as well. After a tough week against Lions running back Andrew Harris, the Ticats will look to get back to their stifling run defence and slow down the Redblacks ground game led by Powell.

• Henry Burris, QB – There were rumblings all week that Burris, the CFL’s leading passer this season, would be unable to play against the Ticats on Sunday. Burris missed the majority of the practice week with the Redblacks, leading some to believe that it would be Thomas DeMarco who would take the field at quarterback for Ottawa. If Burris does indeed make the start (he’s listed as the starting QB on Ottawa’s depth chart), it goes without saying that he’s an important player to watch. If he is unable to play, the quarterback position becomes equally important to watch as DeMarco will need standout effort to lead his team to a win over the Ticats.

DEFENSIVE PLAYERS TO WATCH

• Jovon Johnson, DB – Johnson recorded two interceptions in last Saturday’s win over the Bombers, increasing his season total to five. The veteran defensive back moved himself into the top 75 in CFL history with 29 interceptions over the course of his career. The Redblacks secondary as a whole has recorded the top interception total (24) in the league and they’ll be tasked with shutting down the Ticats dynamic receiving duo of Terrell Sinkfield and Luke Tasker.

• Justin Capicciotti, DE – In his second season with the Redblacks, Capicciotti has matched his 2014 career-high in sacks with 11. The defensive end had three sacks in last week’s win over the Bombers, recording four in the last two games. Capicciotti is a key member of the Redblacks defence and a large reason that they rank first in the league in sacks (52). The Ticats offensive line will need to be on their A-game against the league’s top pass rush if they hope to win the first of back-to-back games against the Redblacks.