The Hamilton Tiger-Cats (0-3) are taking on the Edmonton Eskimos (3-0) at Tim Hortons Field in a rematch of last season’s Eastern Semi-Final. Some critics might discount the Ticats in this match up based on team records alone, but a deeper look at the stats may suggest a different outcome on Thursday night.
The Tiger-Cats’ secondary has had a slow start to the season, with young players filling in for injured veterans. The Tiger-Cats have allowed more points per game than they would have hoped, but they have also faced three of the most potent offences in the league. Each of the Ticats’ opponents thus far averages well over 300 yards passing per game. Ricky Ray, Toronto Argonauts quarterback, posted his lowest yardage of the season when he threw for 327 yards against the BC Lions. Ray had a career night against the Hamilton secondary, but he has also performed well against every other team he has faced.
On the other hand, the Edmonton Eskimos are sixth in passing yards per game, averaging 288.7. Mike Reilly has protected the ball brilliantly and piloted his team to three victories, but he hasn’t overwhelmed defences. His best start was in week one against BC, when he threw for 315 yards and two touchdowns. By comparison, on Saturday against the same BC defence, Collaros threw for 361 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Mike Reilly will also be missing a game-changer in Adarius Bowman, who will be out of the Eskimos’ lineup.
The Eskimos have run the ball well, regardless of which player lines up at running back. John White rushed for over 100 yards in the season opener, and Travon Van stepped up following White’s injury, to rush for over 100 yards against Ottawa. The ability of a running back to slot into the lineup and find immediate success partially speaks to the strength of the Eskimos’ offensive line. The running game is an integral part of the Eskimos’ offence, with Edmonton backs averaging almost 90 yards per game.
A defensive bright spot for the Tiger-Cats has been the strength defending the run. The Ticats’ front seven has allowed opposing running backs an average of 58.3 yards per game.
With the offensive line buying Collaros time in the pocket, Ross Scheuerman establishing himself as a threat at running back, and rookie receiver Jalen Saunders making big plays downfield, the Tiger-Cats’ offence looked much improved in their home opener.
The Eskimos have three wins on the season, but their largest margin of victory was four points against the Alouettes. Edmonton’s home victory against the winless Redblacks was by a margin of just two.
If the Eskimos’ aerial attack continues at its present rate, and the Ticats’ run defence does the same, all signs point to a close and exciting contest at Tim Hortons Field on Thursday night.
